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Read more about Auto & Light Truck applications.

Feb 27, 2001

MUSTANGS, CDS, AND THE "NEXT BIG THING"

An Interview with Ford's Don Frey

Making Money in the New Economy
Innovation: CoMoCo
Intellectual Property
The Mustang

Making Stuff
New Product: "Video"
Next Week . . .

With everybody talking about e-commerce and how it's going to change the auto industry, we decided to go and seek the advice of somebody who knows something about both. Don Frey has had a distinguished career, including stints at Ford -- where he oversaw the development of the Mustang and later ran the Ford Division -- and information services provider Bell+Howell, where he was Chairman and CEO. We caught up with Don in mid-February at Northwestern University, where he now directs the Master Engineering Program. (Part one of a two-part interview.)

CastingTrade: Has the Internet changed everything? Or are the factors that lead to business success the same everywhere and at all times, whether you're launching an e-commerce service or marketing a new automotive product?

Frey: All these businesses are more alike than different. Even if you include the dot-com world, no one's yet managed to change the principles of business. That's not to say the Internet hasn't sped things up, made things cheaper, led to more ubiquitous data. But the real question is still: How much are you going to invest? What return are you going to get? Is anybody going to buy it? What's the volume I'm going to get? Who's your competitor? The basics haven't changed a damn bit!

CastingTrade: Have you seen some companies in the "New Economy" -- e-commerce or Internet -- where you've said, "Hey! Those guys have really got it figured out!"

Frey: My favorite one is Office Depot. And, by the way, their e-commerce site, I think, is profitable. If I pick some that make sense, they tend to be the "click-and-mortar" combination, rather than the "click" only. That's not to say that I've discounted Amazon.com, or Yahoo -- though I'm not going to hold my breath until Amazon makes a profit! I shake my head at that one. A market cap of, what, $3 billion, and they've never made a dime? You know, the thing that fascinates me about the pure dot-coms is: Who in the hell lends them the money? I don't understand it. I'm a limited partner in a venture capital firm, and I know what we go through there. We're early stage investors, at the highest risk/reward end of the spectrum, and I've been involved directly with some of the ventures founded directly out of here [Northwestern University] by faculty and graduate students. The basics haven't changed any. And I'll repeat: What's your product? What makes you think that people are going to buy it? Does the market exist? (That's another classic problem.) Who are your competitors -- or who will be your competitors? What's your cost structure, what's your profit? How much can you sell your product for? Any proof? How much money do you have to invest? And -- in the case of the VCs, what kind of exit strategy, when, can you offer? Going public in five years? O-kay . . Being bought out by a big company? Fine . . . But tell us how you're going to get to that point. Also, watch for the hockey sticks in the financial projections -- they're always there. We have invested, particularly recently, in non-dot-coms. Really, the dot-coms have lost the VCs' favor in the last three years.

CastingTrade: Give me an example of something you've invested in recently.

Frey: CoMoCo. It's a company founded by a professor here, Ed Colgate, that involves an entirely new mechanical/electronic structure for the extension of your body to pick up things -- heavy stuff. It replaces the old chain fall. Very simple, very responsive electronics. You'd have to see this thing to believe it -- it's startling! It's certainly not dot-com. It goes to the material handling market. There hasn't been anything new in the individual material handling market since the invention of the chain and pulley by --

CastingTrade: Archimedes?

Frey: I think that's right. (He laughs.) Colgate and his colleague Michael Peshkin have done some very clever work. Of course, there are some big guys in this business, like Ingersoll-Rand and others. Can we expect to stand against them forever? No, except that we've got patent protection, so you're likely to see someone say it's cheaper to buy them than to try to come up with an alternative themselves.

Non-dot-com. And, by the way, the first thing they did, with the full agreement of Ed Colgate and Michael Peshkin -- in fact it was a condition for getting the first round of financing done -- was to get a professional manager. Very uncommon, but good common sense. Most professors are not very good business managers . . . .

CastingTrade: You mentioned the CoMoCo patent. Are patents being used more as a competitive tool today than they were, say, 20 or 30 years ago? Or is that another constant?

Frey: I think it's fairly constant. I spent a lot of time in the automobile industry, and dealt with both sides of patents a lot. I'll put it this way: What's the purpose of a patent? The purpose of a patent is not to give you 17 years of exclusivity; it's to slow up the guy who's going to copy you. Instead of copying you in two years, it'll take him seven. There's hardly a patent that you can't get around if you spend enough money and enough time. It's doable, it just takes time and money (including lawyers). So you have seven years to get your market share to the point where you can defend yourself, instead of just three. Or it might lead to a cross-licensing deal. It would not be so true in the case of CoMoCo, but at Ford we did it all the time: I've got a patent, you've got a patent, so we trade. It's a common solution. But the historical, traditional idea that a patent gives you 17 years of exclusivity, you make your fortune, society is served as a whole . . . that's too simplistic! I'm not sure it ever worked that way; it sure doesn't now.

CastingTrade: And sometimes a patent is less important in protecting you than the power of your brand. I'm thinking, of course, of the Mustang . . .

Frey: (He pauses.) I think, as a matter of course, we filed a design patent; that's not the greatest

protection in the world! You can come pretty close to looking like that [he points to a picture of a red 1964 Mustang hanging nearby] and not violate a design patent. It's continued to look pretty much likethat to this day. In terms of normal patents on physical, mechanical, electrical inventions . . . there was nothing. We just produced a car with different proportions -- it looked different -- but it was just traditional, conventional design underneath -- deliberately! -- because we didn't want to spend a lot of time on the inside. We made it in 18 months, by the way, and in that time you can't fool around much on the design alternatives!

CastingTrade: And if somebody knocked you off, a consumer would say " -- ? Why would I want to buy knock-off of a Mustang? I want a real Mustang!"

Frey: Right - there's brand equity there. Big time. On two bases: At that time, Ford had a service and distribution network nobody could take on, and consumers were very conscious of that. And, you're right, people can't be fooled.

You know, a long time ago an engineering school classmate of mine, when he became an editor of Time magazine, showed me the Time writer's manual -- the manual they put together to teach young people coming into the business how to write "Time-style." And the lead heading, across the top of the first page, said, "Never overestimate what people know. Or underestimate what they'll do once they do know it." I have never forgotten that! A lot of people fail to realize that. You can't fool the public for very long.

CastingTrade: That's beautiful.

Frey: I think it's just a wonderful way to remind you to keep your head on your shoulders -- about a lot of things. There was an article in the paper the other day about luxury goods knockoffs -- Louis Vuitton, Rolex watches, and so forth. They say they're losing billions of dollars. What struck me, though, if you took the numbers and worked them backwards, is that 90% of, say, the Rolexes -- are real Rolexes! Ten percent aren't, and they look a lot alike, but you can't fool people. They say, "I don't want a cheap watch, I want a Rolex -- for real." And they know the difference.

CastingTrade: Speaking of young engineering school classmates going out into the wider world: You're in a unique position because you see all of these young, smart people here at Northwestern. Do they strike you as being similar to the kids you saw back when you were going to school?

Frey: (He ponders.) I would summarize the situation along these lines: there are two major aspects. In terms of deterministic or even probablistic education, they're probably far better educated than we ever were. That's one side. The other side is: they're not very world-smart!

CastingTrade: What do you mean by that?

Frey: In my day -- I can still remember it (vaguely!) -- the average engineering student had hopped up his car. He had a Model A which he'd bought for fifty bucks, shaved the heads, changed the rings on it, etc. etc. . . . Or he built a radio. Or, in my day, you'd go and see if you could find an old gasoline-powered washing machine made by Maytag -- it had a one-cylinder engine; they'd sit out on the porch -- and you'd go and see if you could scrounge one and make a go-cart out of it. My brother and I did.

Some of those students would have worked, by the way -- that's an important issue. The most common form of work was bagging groceries, or delivering papers. I'm not suggesting this is rocket science, but they had experienced things. And keep in mind, the young people I'm talking about had been through the Depression and a war. Do you know Tom Brokaw's book, The Golden Generation? Well, that's me. We were a product of that. And of course we're talking about before the war -- I served in the Army for four years.

That's not today. They've not experienced the Depression. They've not experienced military service. Now: do I want them to have to do that? No! But I do say that we have to assume in teaching today -- and I'm thinking as a professor now -- that people are coming in with less practical background, and that has to be addressed in the teaching function. It seems there isn't a day that goes by that you don't have something that someone's modeled mathematically in an OR class, on a computer, and you have to say, "Well it doesn't work that way." And they say, "What?" and you say, "Well, I've just never seen a factory work that way." And the young professors, by the way, write these marvelous mathematical treatises, they can get tenure, and it all bears no necessary relationship to reality. Academia needs such theorists, but as a whole the faculty is out of balance -- It needs both theorists and practitioners.

CastingTrade: And what's the solution?

Frey: Very simple: more like me!

CastingTrade: ??

Frey: And that's not ego! The reason they don't have more like me is they can't get in.

CastingTrade: What do you mean, "more like me"?

Frey: Experienced . . . 50 or older . . . still want to be active . . . been in business, or whatever the appropriate profession is, medicine if it's medical school; a practitioner . . . had some accomplishment, got to a high enough position in it to have some perspective . . . I'm not talking about a guy who's spent his life designing door handles in Detroit . . . You see, you have a skewed age group, particularly in engineering, and in business and in medicine -- perhaps law, too. They start out in life as an assistant professor, write their papers in their proper peer-reviewed journals, get to the tenure hearing, get tenure, and go on from there. But they've never had to deal with the practitioner's side! It's not the same! I can well remember the hot June day, when I was an assistant professor at Michigan -- it was 1950, I guess. I had handed out an exam and I was sitting there, proctoring the class, and I thought to myself "Here, I'm teaching engineering, and I've never practiced a day of it in my damn life!" So I took the summer off, went to work for a steel company in Beaver Falls, Pennsylvania, because I felt I needed to get some practical experience. I guess no professor today ever feels that way, because it's a self-reinforcing, internal reward system. It's a separate world. Paid for by tax dollars, or tuition dollars from parents, in the early years, it eventually includes tenure -- which is unique to academia.

CastingTrade: Before you came here, or course, you had a career at Ford and then ran Bell+Howell. What were some of the challenges at B+H?

Frey: Well, when I arrived there, I could see -- with the aid of some serendipitous prior experience -- that the company was doomed! You see, at Ford, I had put in a system -- a system to train salesmen about new car introductions and mechanics -- using videotape -- very early! -- instead of chemically developed film. So I was familiar with the advantages. But when I got to Bell+Howell? There was nothing going on! They were a camera company -- still using Eastman Kodak's film . . .3M's overhead projectors and acetates . . . .Well, as I told my friends, I stood looking west out of my office window and I could see the Japanese "video wave" coming at me -- a tsunami! (He laughs.) So I went to Japan, together with a guy named Bob Pfannkuch. The Japanese knew me: at one time I had bought their whole production of reel-to-reel tape recorders, in the late '60s, and we had gotten to know each other well. I even met Matsushita, the old man; he was still alive then. We saw in their back rooms what became the Beta, the VHS, all in laboratory level. I remember we didn't sleep all the way back from Tokyo -- that's a long flight! -- thinking, "Holy ----! What are we gonna do now??"

So we took two avenues. Since we were a precision electromechancial shop anyway -- a very good one; we also made lasers and all that stuff -- we'd go into the tape recorder business. That's one. It failed big time! Secondly, at that time I was serving on the board of 20th Century Fox -- since we had such a long history in Hollywood, there was always a Bell+Howell seat on the board, and in fact we had won an Oscar for our efforts -- we realized, Bob and I, that in Japan, Matsushita looked upon video as a time shift device, whereas we concluded that it was more of a movie device -- of course, being associated with 20th Century Fox. So we made two sub-decisions. First of all, since I was a director, we got four movies from Fox. We dubbed them and distributed them through what was at that time a crude, undeveloped distribution system. And then we had to choose between the two formats; we didn't want both, because it would complicate manufacturing and everything else. Matsushita had a two hour format and Sony had a one-hour one. The one hour one was determined by the length of TV shows, and the two hour one is because the length of the average movie is 110 minutes or something like that. So we got started. Sheer dumb luck! Dumb luck, by the way, is a big piece of this! (We both laugh.) One of the movies was called "The Towering Inferno." It was a smash hit; we couldn't make it fast enough.

One reason it worked right off the bat was that the medical profession had already taken it up, buying the tape players for medical updates. Then the next thing that grew up was -- porno! Porno built the video industry, for a long time --

CastingTrade: It's building the Internet!

Frey: -- as well as Polaroid, for that matter. Well, we were a public company, we didn't want to get involved with porno, so we did the movies, and the first market was the doctors. They'd take the player home -- they'd written it off as a business expense -- they didn't want to play porno for their families, so they'd buy a movie. So we sold the movies in their journals -- JAMA, The Lancet, whatever -- for $79.95 or something, and we sold them by direct mail!

So the next thing that happens -- I 'm telling you about the video because that was sort of the core of the new company -- was how we supplied them. We started out with some used Ampex quad 4s for mastermaking, and that kind of stuff, in a warehouse over at the corner of Howard-and-something. We bought what are called "slaves" -- in other words, you buy a player, put a signal into it from a master signal source, put in a blank cassette, and it would record the copy. We called it "master/slave." The machines were made for us by Matsushita, to very tight tolerances, but otherwise it was just like if you were copying a videocassette on any home VCR.

We then moved out to Northbrook, into a research-park-like setup out there, and we got a building, and more and more slaves. Pfannkuch was with us, still running this division, having a ball, his life's dreams fulfilled. One day he called me up and said "I've got to see you about getting an air conditioning unit. I need a big one, like about 500 tons --" I said, "What're you talking about? I'm gonna come out and see you." So I go out there and they've got row after row after row of slaves, each producing, I don't know, 15 or 20 watts, so they had to have the air conditioning to get the temperature down, so the people could stand to work, changing these cassettes every 110 minutes.

Well, it grew and it grew and it grew. But the way the industry worked, it was on a highly seasonal basis! Fifty percent of all the business we did was between October 15th and November 15th for Christmas, another 15% was in June (for some reason I never did understand!), with the rest spread throughout the rest of the year. Very peaky demands. Horrible factory utilitization. And then the rental shops started to come in . . .

CastingTrade: What year are we talking about now?

Frey: 1974. By 1977 we had a movie called "E.T." --

CastingTrade: Sure!

Frey: Smash hit.

CastingTrade: Yeah!

Frey: I don't know whose it was -- Disney or somebody -- but by this time we had lined up enough of the majors to have an impact in Hollywood. Well, Hollywood, being a distribution center, knew that inventory cost money -- they got that far, anyway -- so they wanted E.T., and they wanted it for Christmas. Two million copies, and they wanted it between October 15th and November 15th, and that's it! It might have been less than four weeks, come to think of it. Well there's no way in the world we could have done that with those slaves, feeding them with college kids or high school kids. Well, somehow we did it -- jobbed out parts of it to anybody who could make a videotape -- and didn't make much money. So about this time someone said, "You know, these guys from DuPont keep calling us, and they've got a new form of videotape. The funny thing is, it's chrome oxide based, not ferric oxide based, and they think it's the greatest thing because you can dub it better --

CastingTrade: Meaning you could do it faster?

Frey: It was fast -- and expensive --

CastingTrade: Well, you said it was DuPont, so automatically . . .

Frey: (He laughs.) Yes! So we went to Wilmington, and took a look at what they were talking about, and the upshot was we made a joint contract, 50/50 -- they put in $10 million and so did we -- to develop a high-speed recorder. It was something like 4 minutes per dub. The tape would go through there at supersonic speeds.

CastingTrade: Really? You're talking about to dub --

Frey: Yes!

CastingTrade: -- a whole movie?

Frey: Yes! It was unbelievable. In fact, the biggest problem with those machines was, at those speeds, the mylar was like a knife. It would cut through the guides, so we had to put diamonds in it . It had diamond guides! So: we built a battery of those. (By the way, we finally got a working machine at $60 million; we put in our $10 million, and DuPont covered the rest, but they said "a deal's a deal" . . ..) Well, it looked like Battleship Row in our workshop in Northbrook! And it created a complete change of dynamics in the industry. I remember the arguments with Pfannkuch. He'd come in about once a quarter and complain because I had told the finance department to write that capital equipment off in the first year -- not from a tax point of view, but from a book point of view. It kicked the hell out of their bonuses at the division, but I said, "Look, you're changing your technology so fast -- you're going to end up with 90% of the thing unamortized -- and I'm not going to take that hit!" Pfannkuch, if he were sitting here today, would still complain about it, but he'd agree that I'm right. We went through about nine generations of equipment before we got done. High-speed recording of videocassettes had never been done before. But it got to the point where you could make a videocassette for a buck. To give you an example, when we first sold the videocassettes to the doctors through their journals, they retailed for $79.95 and I think our first level manufacturing costs were something on the order of thirty bucks. Today the cost is 90 cents. You invested . . .

The other big start was the CD-ROM. The Bell+Howell company dominated the market for CD-ROMs . . .

(NEXT WEEK: In the conclusion of our interview with Don Frey, he tells about the crucial role of the auto parts business in the commercialization of the CD-ROM, recalls some big changes at the Ford foundry at Rouge, and gives his perspective on where the auto business is heading.)

   
   
 
 


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